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Comparing trends across multiple cut scores under current accountability policies   

Comparing trends across multiple cut scores under current accountability policies


Tracey Ryan Magda

Paperback. ProQuest, UMI Dissertation Publishing 2011-09-11.
ISBN 9781244080560
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Although high-stakes assessment policies commonly lead to educational test score gains, the interpretations of these gains may not always be as they appear. Currently, the No Child Left Behind (NCLB) legislation places incentives at one point in the score distribution, the Proficient cut score. Under this policy, schools and districts are held accountable for the percentage of students scoring at or above this Proficient cut score. This dissertation investigates possible associations between this policy model and trends at various locations in the score distribution. Specifically, I investigate the prevalence of amplified trends at the Proficient cut score as compared to other distributional locations. I begin by describing a novel methodology, the Normal-Shift model, that allows for such comparisons. This model allows estimation of expected trends at multiple cut scores and interpretations of observed trends that are greater than expected. I apply this method to state-level assessment results from multiple grades, subjects, and years. I aggregate results looking for consistent patterns of trends at the Proficient cut score. I then compare states using conventional NCLB calculations to those that use recently introduced alternate calculations that serve to diminish Proficiency-centered incentives. With these alternate calculations, there was no evidence of amplification of proficiency trends during the initial implementation year. In the years following implementation of these calculations, the analyses suggest a slight increase in amplified trends at the Proficient cut score. Although some evidence was found supporting the hypothesis of amplified Proficiency trends in aggregate, the individual state results allowed for easier interpretations. I supplemented this investigation with an analysis of school-level results in California. For these analyses I introduce information regarding schools' prior NCLB performance. The goal was to determine if schools that had previously failed to meet policy goals were more likely to see amplified proficiency trends than schools that had been successful. Results from these comparisons were inconclusive, but notable differences in trend patterns were found across school sizes: The largest schools provided the greatest evidence of amplified proficiency trends. This research provides a foundation for future large-scale trend analysis under NCLB



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Comparing trends across multiple cut scores under current accountability policies
Comparing trends across multiple cut scores under current accountability policies
  
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